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A Year 2000 Action Plan Millennium Two: What To Do 

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BIZAUTO BULLETIN 98.2

GUEST VIEWPOINT, BY JOHN RITZENTHALER:

If not corrected, this error corrupts interest computations, payment aging, and every other date-based calculation. Unfortunately, the problem is easy to describe but difficult to fix.  So difficult that governments, large corporations and software companies that have in- house programming departments have been working on it for some time and most are still a long way from completion. 

The situation is different for companies that buy their corporate software instead of writing it.  Most of them will have to convert to new or upgraded software must be purchased.  That may be expensive but doesn't appear to require years of advanced planning.  Unfortunately, all the companies that don't plan in advance will face an installation crisis.  As an example, here are some statistics for construction accounting software: 

• There are about 50,000 medium to large construction companies in the US.
• Those companies purchase about 5,000 systems per year.
• Construction software vendors have enough installation expertise to install those 5,000 systems, but most are already facing a shortage of qualified trainers and installers.  It takes as long as two years to properly train an installer.

Unfortunately, most of these systems aren't supported.  Companies using these systems usually have contract programmers who spend a few weeks each year to update the system enough to get along.  Changing the software to support year 2000 dates is a huge task.  Most companies will choose to buy new systems rather than spending tens of thousands of dollars perpetuating an obsolete system. All these companies will want to install new software in 1999.  There's the crisis. 

If the estimates above are correct, as many as 20,000 construction companies will want to install systems in 1999 (the usual 5,000 plus 15,000 older systems).  That's FOUR TIMES the installation capacity.  When the software vendors run out of installation capacity, it will be too late to train new installers.  They will only have two choices.  Some will probably raise their prices significantly to reduce demand and limit themselves to their capacity.  Others will overload their installers, and add new, inexperienced installers.  Being on the receiving end of either of these options will be an unpleasant experience, but the companies that wait until 1999 will have no choice. 

This phenomenon isn't limited to the construction industry, that's only an example.  Any business software which requires significant training and installation will be effected.  And the rush may start well before 1999.  Management can easily avoid the crisis by acting now.  The steps are simple: 

1. Identify the company's critical software and the support resources for it.  Don't confuse user support with software support.  Find the organization that fixes and enhances the software. 
2. Get specific information on what will be required to reach year 2000 functionality.  A software vendor may have a simple path for users of their current release, but no path for users that are out of date. 
3. Identify the resources required for conversion.  This will include internal resources as well as purchased software, hardware upgrades, installation and training. 
4. If updating the current software is a major commitment, consider installing a new system instead.  This analysis takes time and expertise, but is well worth it.