Crystal Ball Time Again (whew, another chance)

After several years of pretty good predicting, I've got to 'fess up: 1997 didn't exactly produce stellar results (except for one big, big, big near miss that no one else even thought to predict . . . see the second prediction immediately below):

Fast Internet service will be introduced, on a paid basis. Partial credit. A variety of faster connections debuted all over the country. But I'd anticipated a pay-by-the-minute service for business and it didn't happen.

At least one of the old "big iron" computer-makers will go belly up. Didn't happen. But it did happen 26 days later when Compaq agreed to buy Digital Equipment Company . . . very close, but no cigar.

Hundreds of local Internet Service Providers will "bite the dust" as users flock to America Online. Half credit. Hundreds did, but they were replaced by others that are equally tenuous . . . no net reduction in numbers.

The leading e-mail packages will all begin offering one-button encryption and its use will boom. Half credit again. Microsoft, Netscape, Eudora . . . they all do it. Free too! The mistake is that hardly anyone uses it.

Major toll-free phone centers will integrate their "800" numbers with their web sites. Nope. They should--and sooner or later will--but not yet.

Despite these grim results, I'm going to fight the urge to predict a bunch of "slam dunks" for '98 (one high-profile industry figure last year predicted the Internet would increase in importance . . . No duh!). So here's my shot at a more accurate 1998:

IF YOU BUILD IT (a web site), THEY WILL BUY. At least half of those who use the web regularly will use it to buy products or services in '98. Those who measure say about 27% buy now, but '98 will be a breakthrough year for net-based commerce.

GIVE 'EM THE SECOND DECREE. Microsoft and the Department of Justice will settle their current dispute with another consent decree. It, too, will be criticized as overly lenient . . . and it, too, will be criticized as being too lenient . . . and Microsoft will again be accused of violating it (but not until '99).

FOR THE GEEK WHO HAS EVERYTHING. Many top-of-the-line notebook PCs will come standard with wireless or two-way satellite modems for Internet access. Cool!

NOW YOU SEE IT, NOW YOU DON'T. There will be a major news story involving the recovery of erased or missing computer data. Maybe political fundraising, maybe Whitewater . . . possibly even some international or diplomatic event.

READY OR NOT, HERE IT COMES. Windows 98 will be delivered in '98, but not until quite late in the year. Expect it mid to late fourth quarter. Microsoft isn't about to have its flagship Windows product come out in the wrong year.

Even though 1997 wasn't great for the annual picks, as of December '97, it now looks like my Year 2000 predictions--made in January 1990 and certainly not slam dunks at the time--are going to go three for three.

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