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FROM THE EDITOR:

At the beginning of 1996 I predicted: "Cheap new Internet computers from Oracle, Sun and IBM won't replace PCs, they'll supplement them, creating a whole new market."  The origin of this prediction was a controversy, just starting then, over the value of these new devices.  Well, a year and a half has passed, and the decibel level has, if anything, escalated.  The truth, however, is that both sides were wrong then, they're wrong now, and they show all signs of continuing to be wrong for months (if not years) to come. 

Here's the background: the "cheap new Internet computers" are now called by a variety of names, including "network computers" ("NCs") or--you guessed it--"thin clients".  What this refers to is that, as some see it, the bulk of the "computing" in future systems will be done on a server, and the users will be connected either via the Internet or private Internet-like networks ("Intranets").  And, because of this structure, the users' computers (the "clients") won't have to be very powerful (hence they can be "thin"). 

What creates the heat is whether these NCs will or will not take over the PC market.  Not  surprisingly, those taking the loudest public stands on this issue are those with the biggest stake in its outcome: Larry Ellison (of Oracle, which makes database software for network servers) and Bill Gates (you know what he makes).  Here, basically, are their arguments: 

• NC supporters: With the advent of the Internet, powerful Windows-base PCs are no longer needed.  Buyers want cheap, simple, easy-to-use devices that never need upgrading (since power will reside--and upgrades will occur--at the server).
• Skeptics:  What people do (word processing, etc.) requires powerful PCs . . . they won't buy "brain dead" NCs for $500 when they can get whole computers for $1000 to $2000.

In fact, they're both right . . . and they're both wrong!  Most (but not all) computer users do need PC power and don't relish giving up control to some server halfway around the world.  These buyers, and many who'll follow, will continue using and trading up their PCs, fueling continued growth in the PC market.  But this leaves three huge market segments uncovered:  

• Business users who need to access to their companies' computers but don't need PCs, 
• Second, third and fourth "computers" in secondary locations around the home (family room, kitchen, etc.) for Internet connection
• The rest of urbanized humanity, for whom the Internet, once its multimedia problems are solved, will become a sort of Super-TV.