Cyber-Soothsayer '97

Few refer to me as a man ahead of my time. But my predictions, while not 100% year-to-year, do have the ring of reality . . . if you wait long enough. Two of my missed predictions from two years ago are now coming true, bringing '95's success rate to 80%. With that it mind let's first humbly review last year's prognostications:

The World Wide Web now known mostly as a consumer medium will become equally prominent for business-to-business use. Close, but no cigar. Businesses are taking to the Web in great numbers, but not to the level of consumer marketers . . . yet.

Apple will be radically different at the end of the year than at the beginning. For sure. New leaders, much reduced market share, long time accounts leaving in droves and, now, the re-hiring of Steve Jobs and plans to adopt his NeXT operating system.

IBM's Lotus buyout will be considered a failure. Wrong! Surprise . . . Lotus Notes trumped its Internet-based rivals by moving to the 'net itself and improving too.

Cheap new Internet computers from Oracle, Sun and IBM won't replace PCS, they'll supplement them, creating a whole new market. Precisely. Some are still doubtful as the actual products just begin to appear, but this is exactly what's happening.

By year's end, most new PCS will come with Windows NT . . . not Win95. Not yet. Microsoft is preserving Win95 (soon to be out with a Win97 upgrade), but once the Pentium Pro passes the Pentium as the most common PC chip, NT will follow.

Keep watching those first and last ones--they're sleepers--while I try five more:

The information highway's "fast lane". Fast Internet service will be introduced, on a paid basis. Like a highway jammed with 18-wheelers, the Internet "backbone" is bogging down. Businesses want, and will pay for, extra speed.

Digital dinosaurs. At least one of the old "big iron" computer-makers will go belly up. Could be Digital, maybe Data General or Unisys . . . maybe someone else. The market just can't support as many of these companies as it used to.
Digital fruit flies. Hundreds of local Internet Service Providers will "bite the dust" as users flock to America Online. At a flat $20 a month, it offers more than the local ISPs, charges the same and is easier to use to boot. But can it make any money?
Scramble my eggs . . . and my e-mail. The leading e-mail packages will all begin offering one-button encryption and its use will boom. Internet users want better security but won't use it until it's much easier to do. It will be.
Operators are standing by . . . on the Web. Major toll-free phone centers will integrate their "800" numbers with their web sites. When web sites and call centers are integrated, callers will get answers faster and won't have to repeat everything to the service rep when they do need human assistance.

I'm concentrating hard on 1997 with these . . . I'm betting all of them should actually happen by the end of the year (but if not, stay tuned).

Talk back to the editor, we welcome your opinion. or call Business Automation at (602) 264-9263

Click here to read the previous editorial: A Telecommunications Tale, Circa 1999