Business Automation Bulletin 96.4 / April 1996

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FROM THE EDITOR:

The Challenger and the Champ

In 50 years of computing, there have been only two champions: IBM and Microsoft.

IBM came to the fore early, dominating all the significant "weight classes". It had some tough competitors, though: DEC won the "minicomputer division" and Cray surpassed it in the "scientific computing division". But IBM reigned undefeated in the heavyweight "commercial computing division" for close to 35 years.

In all that time, IBM never had the best punch (i.e., products), but it did have the most endurance and it seldom made mistakes. Throughout it's heyday, IBM always let other companies innovate and if they succeeded, it would bring out a "me too" product just different enough to surpass the originator.

But old age eventually set in. IBM was in such a hurry to bring out its own PC that it dropped its guard and left the design unprotected. So Microsoft (until then, just a light-weight), jumped on IBM's weakness to protect DOS--the PC's only unique part--for itself. IBM could easily have recovered at the time by buying out Microsoft for a song. But instead it took more and more chances, trying to "sucker punch" Microsoft, and it made more and more mistakes until, at last, Microsoft (which fought flawlessly) gained the heavyweight title.

Microsoft learned the "fight game" well. Like IBM, it seldom innovates, preferring instead to copy others. By piggybacking on its DOS success, Microsoft gained the endurance it needed to stay in the ring until each of its rivals, one by one, made a fatal mistake. Windows--until recently, only a warmed-over "knock-off" of Apple's Macintosh--is a prime example. It's not the best at what it does, but having overwhelmed and outlasted its competitors, it's the only one that still matters.

But there's a new weight class today: the Internet. And Microsoft just may be getting "a little too long in the tooth" to exploit it. The challenger this time is Netscape, a grad school spin-off that's won all the early rounds and built up a huge lead. Microsoft is fighting back, of course--aging champions always do--but it's not familiar with the ring and some of the referees don't like it very much. It might, in fact, be so far behind that one or two "haymakers", like its recent decision to give away its Internet server software for free, may not be enough to score a knock-out.

Who's going to win, you ask? If the future's anything like the past, I'd say bet on the underdog! . . . no, bet on Microsoft! . . . no . . . well, I don't know. But it's sure turning out to be one heck of a battle! I advise just sitting back, grabbing a beer, clicking your mouse and enjoying the action.

Do you want to take issue with this column (or anything else, for that matter)? You can!
Click here to register your opinion . . . you may change my mind.

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