Toasting Windows 95 with New Coke

I predicted earlier this year that Windows 95 would miss its delivery date . . . again. "They shoulda' called it Denver," I wrote, likening the much heralded Windows release to that city's delay-ridden airport.

But I was wrong.

Barring unforeseen events, Win95 will ship in August as Microsoft has promised. There is one tiny little glitch, however: the version of Win95 being shipped to retailers has had numerous capabilities stripped out and, at last count, over 1000 bugs remain.

By all accounts, Windows 95 is much better than Windows 3.1, the product it replaces. Nearly everyone expects it to be an instant success. Nonetheless, there are some vocal skeptics. Infoworld columnist Bob Metcalfe, the inventor of Ethernet (which made local area networking possible), wrote recently that if Win95 does come out as scheduled on August 24th, that date "will long be remembered as the day Microsoft's wave broke".

I'm skeptical too.

To my mind, Windows 95 is kind of like New Coke. There are a lot of differences, but stick with me. Like the Coca Cola company, Microsoft has market tested the product extensively. And most people say it's a lot better than the old one. Both companies have a string of successes . . . New Coke and Windows 95 are viewed as the latest in a long series of hits. How could they fail?

I'd say the chances are just as good for Win95 as they were for New Coke before the product hit the market. But I think there are a lot of PC users who won't swallow a new Windows upgrade for three big reasons:

Hardly anyone really needs Windows 95 (Did anyone need New Coke?).
It costs a lot to install Win95 . . . the software itself carries about a $90 price tag and many existing PCs will need expensive upgrades to run it acceptably.
Windows 3.1 "ain't broke", so most users have no incentive to "fix" it with a new product that's sure to carry many glitches.

So, there you have it. Despite lots of tests, history, hype and anticipation, New Coke failed. The fate of Windows 95 may be much the same. It could take off immediately. Then again it could leave a bad after-taste with Windows users for years . . . or it could just fizzle and go flat as soon as it's released.

Don't bet money on that last possibility, Bill Gates has a lot riding on this. But, if Windows 95 ends up being the New Coke of the digital age, you know where you heard it first.

CONTENTS OF BULLETIN 95.7

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