Business Automation Bulletin 95.12 / Published Bimonthly / December 1995
Inside this Bulletin
FROM THE EDITOR:
1995: Yogi Berra and Me
When Yankees lost the '60 Series, Yogi Berra said, "We made too many wrong mistakes."
That about describes my 1995 predictions, as you can see. But a few won't be wrong much
longer.
- E-mail addresses will start showing up on most business cards and business-
oriented print ads. False . . . but wait! My new
business cards have an E-mail address--as do millions of others--but "most" overstates the
case (for now).
- Windows95 will slip again beyond its newly re-scheduled August '95 availability
date. Also falso. Bill Gates and Co. put on an impressive "two-minute
drill" (and an unprecedented marketing campaign) at the end to get it out on time . . . with
at least two minutes to spare.
- By this time next year, the Pentium bugs will be long forgotten, largely because the
Hexium (or Sexium, if we're lucky) will be out with new bugs. Absolutely
true. Would you have even remembered the Pentium bug if I hadn't brought it up?
The new chip is out and has bugs just as predicted. The only thing I missed was the name:
it's Pentium Pro.
- Novell's Netware 4 (a poor seller to date) and Windows NT Server will compete for
market share all year, but Novell will still have a big lead in the end. True.
Netware is still #1, and I think it'll stay there. But NT is giving it a darn good chase.
- Power users will be using ISDN or cable TV circuits to access the Internet instead
of phone lines. False. Power users are positively
drooling over the prospect of ISDN or cable access to the 'Net . . . the
phone and cable companies just can't deliver yet (but they will soon).
As Yogi once said, "Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting."
I could just do my '95 near misses again . . . Naa', too easy. Here are
some new ones instead:
- SURF'S UP . . . AT THE OFFICE. The World Wide Web--now
known mostly as a consumer medium--will become equally prominent for business-to-
business use. The economics are there . . . it's the business tool of the 90s.
- APPLES DON'T FALL FAR FROM TREES (except this one):
Apple will be radically different at the end of the year than at the beginning.
Maybe much bigger, maybe much smaller, maybe acquired. But whatever, more focused
than today and much different.
- NOTE THIS: IBM's Lotus buyout will be considered a failure.
Anything Notes can do the 'Net can do better (sung to the tune of "Anything you can do, I
can do better."). Notes was Lotus' crown jewel, and it's turning to paste.
- NOT TONIGHT, HON, I'M ON THE 'NET. Cheap new Internet
computers from Oracle, Sun and IBM won't replace PCs, they'll supplement them, creating a
whole new market. People will have PCs and "Internet stations",
but they'll use them for different things.
- THE END OF '96 WILL BE THE END OF "95": By year's end, most
new PCs will come with Windows NT . . . not Win95. There's no reason for Win95 to
exist once PCs have enough power to run the real Microsoft product.
Win95: it's the "PCjr" of Windows.
Before you criticize (based on my 1995 batting average), remember that other Yogi
maxim: "It ain't over 'til it's over" . . . and 1996 could be a long year.
CONTENTS OF BULLETIN 95.10
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