As regular Bulletin readers know, I make five predictions every year. I do this not just to fill a column, but also because the discipline of making them forces me to think critically about where the industry is going. But yearly predictions have a big drawback--whether they're right or wrong when the year ends, things often change later on. That's why I made three 10-year predictions in 1990. So, let's look at those:
Voice recognition actually works pretty well already, but it hasn't caught on, largely because it needs an awfully powerful computer--by early 90s (but not late 90s) standards. It will never take over entirely but, by the time we're popping champagne corks for the new century, voice recognition should be as common as mouses are today.
Security systems, too, are just beginning to take off. I based my original prediction on the spread of computer viruses, but the real force has been the growth of the Internet. That's okay . . . I'll take my wins anywhere I can.
In 1989, most data communications clocked in at 9,600 to 19,200 bits per second (bps), so a tenfold increase would be 96 to 192 thousand (kilo) bits per second (Kbps). The most common speeds for similar data links today are in the range of 56 to 128 Kbps and current technology will easily make my prediction true in the next two to three years.
From late 1986 (when I started) to 1994, I've made 41 predictions (not counting this year's). Based on my year-end accounts, 22 were right, 8 wrong and 11 had mixed or uncertain results. With the passage of time, the score today is 23 right, 11 wrong and 7 mixed . . . but several have flip-flopped from one category to another. Depending on how you count mixed results, I'm "batting" right around .650 . . . not too shabby!
In retrospect, my best predictions were probably those forecasting Hewlett Packard's success and the market failure of the personal digital assistants (like the Apple Newton and its competitors). I've also been pretty good at calling IBM's ups and downs over the past couple of years. My worst picks: consistently underestimating Microsoft (in all fairness, it was pretty hard not to, but I went beyond the call of duty).
All in all, it's a pretty good record. Maybe not up there with Nostradamus and Jeanne Dixon, but I'm not hangin' up the ole' crystal ball yet.
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